A novel nomogram to predict the risk of anastomotic leakage in patients after oesophagectomy

Abstract

Abstract Background Anastomotic leakage is a dangerous postoperative complication of oesophageal surgery. The present study aimed to develop a simple and practical scoring system to predict the risk of anastomotic leakage after oesophageal resection. Methods A consecutive series of 330 patients who underwent oesophageal cancer surgery from January 2016 to January 2018 at the Shanghai Chest Hospital were included to develop a prediction model. Anastomotic leakage was evaluated using oesophagography, computed tomography, or flexible endoscopy. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression based on a generalized linear model was used to select variables for the anastomotic leakage risk model while avoiding overfitting. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build forest plots and a prediction model. The concordance index or the area under the curve was used to judge the discrimination, and calibration plots verified the consistency. Internal validation of the model was conducted, and the clinical usefulness and threshold screening of the model were evaluated by decision curve analysis. Results The factors included in the predictive nomogram included Sex, diabetes history, anastomotic type, reconstruction route, smoking history, CRP level and presence of cardiac arrhythmia. The model displayed a discrimination performance with a concordance index of 0.690 (95% confidence interval: 0.620–0.760) and good calibration. A concordance index value of 0.664 was maintained during the internal validation. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the actual observations and the predicted results. Conclusion The present prediction model, which requires only seven variables and includes Sex, diabetes history, anastomotic type, reconstruction route, smoking history, CRP level and presence of cardiac arrhythmia, may be useful for predicting anastomotic leakage in patients after oesophagectomy.