Preoperative and postoperative nomograms for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma without macrovascular invasion after curative resection

Abstract

Abstract Background Postoperative early recurrence (ER) is a major obstacle to long-term survival after curative liver resection (LR) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to establish preoperative and postoperative nomograms to predict ER in HCC without macrovascular invasion. Methods Patients who underwent curative LR for HCC between January 2012 and December 2016 were divided into training and internal prospective validation cohorts. Nomograms were constructed based on independent risk factors derived from the multivariate logistic regression analyses in the training cohort. The predictive performances of the nomograms were validated using the internal prospective validation cohort. Results In total, 698 patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Among them, 265 of 482 patients (55.0%) in the training cohort and 120 of 216 (55.6%) patients in the validation cohort developed ER. The preoperative risk factors associated with ER were age, alpha-fetoprotein, tumor diameter, and tumor number, and the postoperative risk factors associated with ER were age, tumor diameter, tumor number, microvascular invasion, and differentiation. The pre- and postoperative nomograms based on these factors showed good accuracy, with concordance indices of 0.712 and 0.850 in the training cohort, respectively, and 0.754 and 0.857 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves showed optimal agreement between the predictions by the nomograms and actual observations. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the pre- and postoperative nomograms were 0.721 and 0.848 in the training cohort, respectively, and 0.754 and 0.844 in the validation cohort, respectively. Conclusions The nomograms constructed in this study showed good performance in predicting ER for HCC without macrovascular invasion before and after surgery. These nomograms would be helpful for doctors when determining treatments and selecting patients for regular surveillance or administration of adjuvant therapies.