Prognostic value of a nomogram based on peripheral blood immune parameters in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy

Abstract

Abstract Background For patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC), intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has become one of the options for clinical local treatment. Immune parameters, including platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and systemic immune inflammatory (SII), predict survival in various cancers. This study aimed to determine whether peripheral immune parameters can predict survival in patients with uHCC undergoing IMRT and establish a clinically useful prognostic nomogram for survival prediction. Methods The clinical data of 309 HCC patients were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into training (n = 216) and validation (n = 93) cohorts. PLR, NLR and SII were collected before and after IMRT. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors affecting survival, which were used to generate a nomogram. Results The median survival was 16.3 months, and significant increases in PLR, NLR, and SII were observed after IMRT (P < 0.001). High levels of immune parameters were associated with poor prognosis (P < 0.001); enlarged spleen, Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage (B and C), post-SII, and delta-NLR were independent risk factors for survival and were included in the nomogram, which accurately predicted 3- and 5-year survival. The nomogram was well verified in the validation cohort. Conclusions High levels of immune parameters are associated with poor prognosis in uHCC patients receiving IMRT. Our nomogram accurately predicts the survival of patients with uHCC receiving IMRT.