Development of a gastric cancer risk calculator for questionnaire-based surveillance of Iranian dyspeptic patients

Author:

Gohari Kimiya,Saberi Samaneh,Esmaieli Maryam,Tashakoripour Mohammad,Hosseini Mahmoud Eshagh,Nahvijou Azin,Mohagheghi Mohammad Ali,Kazemnejad Anoshirvan,Mohammadi Marjan

Abstract

Abstract Background Gastric cancer (GC) is considered a silent killer, taking more than three quarters of a million lives annually. Therefore, prior to further costly and invasive diagnostic approaches, an initial GC risk screening is desperately in demand. Methods In order to develop a simple risk scoring system, the demographic and lifestyle indices from 858 GC and 1132 non-ulcer dyspeptic (NUD) patients were analysed. We applied a multivariate logistic regression approach to identify the association between our target predictors and GC versus NUD. The model performance in classification was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Our questionnaire covering 64 predictors, included known risk factors, such as demographic features, dietary habits, self-reported medical status, narcotics use, and SES indicators. Results Our model segregated GC from NUD patients with the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy rates of 85.89, 63.9, and 73.03%, respectively, which was confirmed in the development dataset (AUC equal to 86.37%, P < 0.0001). Predictors which contributed most to our GC risk calculator, based on risk scores (RS) and shared percentages (SP), included: 1) older age group [> 70 (RS:+ 241, SP:7.23), 60–70 (RS:+ 221, SP:6.60), 50–60 (RS:+ 134, SP:4.02), 2) history of gastrointestinal cancers (RS:+ 173, SP:5.19), 3) male gender (RS:+ 119, SP:3.55), 4) non-Fars ethnicity (RS:+ 89, SP:2.66), 5) illiteracy of both parents (RS:+ 78, SP:2.38), 6) rural residence (RS:+ 77, SP:2.3), and modifiable dietary behaviors (RS:+ 32 to + 53, SP:0.96 to 1.58). Conclusion Our developed risk calculator provides a primary screening step, prior to the subsequent costly and invasive measures. Furthermore, public awareness regarding modifiable risk predictors may encourage and promote lifestyle adjustments and healthy behaviours.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3