Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models

Abstract

AbstractThe risk of many demographic events varies by both current state and duration in that state. However, the use of such semi-Markov models has been substantially constrained by data limitations. Here, a new specification of the semi-Markov transition probability matrix in terms of the underlying rates is provided, and a general procedure is developed to estimate semi-Markov probabilities and rates from adjacent population data.Multistate models recognizing marriage and divorce by duration in state are constructed for United States Females, 1995. The results show that recognizing duration in the married and divorced states adds significantly to the model’s analytical value. Extending the constant-α method to semi-Markov models, 2000–2005 U.S. population data and 1995 cross-product ratios are employed to estimate 2000–2005 duration-dependent transfer probabilities and rates.The present analyses provide new relationships between probabilities and rates in semi-Markov models. Extending the constant cross-product ratio estimation approach opens new sources of data and expands the range of data susceptible to state-duration analyses.