Cost-effectiveness analysis of pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy compared with chemotherapy alone as first-line treatment for patients with advanced biliary tract cancer in China

Abstract

Abstract Objective The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding pembrolizumab to the standard first-line therapy of advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) with gemcitabine and cisplatin from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Methods The partitioned survival model developed from clinical data obtained in The KEYNOTE-966 trial served as the basis for a simulation in the TreeAge Pro 2011 software. The objective of the research was to estimate the 10-year life expectancy and total healthcare costs of patients with BTC, utilizing primary outcomes that evaluated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). To establish the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, the 2022 Chinese per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of $37304.346/QALY was adopted. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was conducted to ascertain the study’s results under varying levels of uncertainty. Results Compared to chemotherapy alone, the addition of pembrolizumab to chemotherapy has been shown to yield an incremental gain of 0.184 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) at an additional cost of $103940.706. This translates into an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $564895.141/QALY, which exceeds the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in China. One-way sensitivity analyses performed on the model recognize the utility of PD, subsequent cost, and the cost of Pembrolizumab 100 mg had a major influence on the outcomes. However, no parameter elicited an ICER lower than the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. Conclusions Based on the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system, the utilization of pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy as an first-line treatment option for BTC does not appear to be a cost-effective approach compared to chemotherapy as a standalone therapy.