Development and validation of a risk model with variables related to non-small cell lung cancer in patients with pulmonary nodules: a retrospective study

Abstract

Abstract Background Lung cancer is a major global threat to public health for which a novel predictive nomogram is urgently needed. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) which accounts for the main port of lung cancer cases is attracting more and more people’s attention. Patients and methods Here, we designed a novel predictive nomogram using a design dataset consisting of 515 pulmonary nodules, with external validation being performed using a separate dataset consisting of 140 nodules and a separate dataset consisting of 237 nodules. The selection of significant variables for inclusion in this model was achieved using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model, after which a corresponding nomogram was developed. C-index values, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses were used to gauge the discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility, respectively, of this predictive model. Validation was then performed with the internal bootstrapping validation and external cohorts. Results A predictive nomogram was successfully constructed incorporating hypertension status, plasma fibrinogen levels, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), density, ground-glass opacity (GGO), and pulmonary nodule size as significant variables associated with nodule status. This model exhibited good discriminative ability, with a C-index value of 0.765 (95% CI: 0.722-0.808), and was well-calibrated. In validation analyses, this model yielded C-index values of 0.892 (95% CI: 0.844-0.940) for external cohort and 0.853 (95% CI: 0.807-0.899) for external cohort 2. In the internal bootstrapping validation, C-index value could still reach 0.753. Decision curve analyses supported the clinical value of this predictive nomogram when used at a NSCLC possibility threshold of 18%. Conclusion The nomogram constructed in this study, which incorporates hypertension status, plasma fibrinogen levels, BUN, density, GGO status, and pulmonary nodule size, was able to reliably predict NSCLC risk in this Chinese cohort of patients presenting with pulmonary nodules.