A novel scoring system integrating molecular abnormalities with IPSS-R can improve the risk stratification in patients with MDS

Abstract

Abstract Background The treatment strategies for Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) are usually based on the risk stratification system. However, few risk signatures which integrate the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) with gene mutations can be easily applied in the real world. Methods The training cohort of 63 MDS patients was conducted at Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University from January 2013 to April 2020. The validation cohort of 141 MDS patients was obtained from GSE129828. The mutation scoring system was based on the number of mutations and a unique favorable prognostic factor, which is SF3B1 mutation. Univariate Cox, multivariate Cox, and LASSO regression analyses were used to determine the significant factors that influenced the overall survival. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the efficiency of the prognostic model. Results A novel risk scoring system we named “mutation combined with revised international prognostic scoring system (MIPSS-R)” was developed based on the results derived from multivariate analysis which assigned points to the IPSS-R and the mutation scores according to their relative statistical weight. Based on the quintile of the new scores, patients were divided into five risk levels. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed the superiority of MIPSS-R in separating patients from different groups, comparing with IPSS-R both in the training cohort (p = 1.71e-08 vs. p = 1.363e-04) and validation cohort (p = 1.788e-04 vs. p = 2.757e-03). The area under the ROC of MIPSS-R was 0.79 in the training cohort and 0.62 in the validation cohort. The retrospective analysis of our house patients showed that the risk levels of 57.41% of patients would adjust according to MIPSS-R. After changing risk levels, 38.71% of patients would benefit from treatment strategies that MIPSS-R recommends. Conclusion A mutation scoring system was conducted based on the number of mutations and a unique favorable prognostic factor. MIPSS-R, the novel integral risk stratification system was developed by integrating IPSS-R and the mutation scores, which is more effective on prognosis and treatment guidance for MDS patients.