Cancer patterns in Iran: a gender-specific spatial modelling of cancer incidence during 2014–2017

Abstract

Abstract Background Cancer is a significant public health concern and the second leading cause of death. This study aims to visualize spatial patterns of top common cancer types and identify high-risk and low-risk counties for these cancers in Iran from 2014 to 2017. Methods In this study, we analyzed 482,229 newly diagnosed cancer cases recorded by the Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry from 2014 to 2017. We employed a purely spatial scanning model and local Moran I analysis to explore spatial patterns across Iran. Results Approximately 53% of all cases were male. The average age of cancer diagnosis was 62.58 ± 17.42 years for males and 56.11 ± 17.33years for females. Stomach cancer was the most common cancer in men. The northern and northwestern regions of Iran were identified as high-risk areas for stomach cancer in both genders, with a relative risk (RR) ranging from 1.26 to 2.64 in males and 1.19 to 3.32 in females. These areas recognized as high-risk areas for trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer specifically in males (RR:1.15–2.02). Central regions of Iran were identified as high-risk areas for non-melanoma skin cancers in both genders, ranking as the second most common cancer (RR:1.18–5.93 in males and 1.24–5.38 in females). Furthermore, bladder cancer in males (RR:1.32–2.77) and thyroid cancer in females (RR:1.88–3.10) showed concentration in the central part of Iran. Breast cancer, being the most common cancer among women (RR:1.23–5.54), exhibited concentration in the northern regions of the country. Also, northern regions of Iran were identified as high-risk clusters for colon cancer (RR:1.31–3.31 in males and 1.33–4.13 in females), and prostate cancer in males (RR:1.22–2.31). Brain, nervous system cancer, ranked sixth among women (RR:1.26–5.25) in central areas. Conclusions The study's revelations on the spatial patterns of common cancer incidence in Iran provide crucial insights into the distribution and trends of these diseases. The identification of high-risk areas equips policymakers with valuable information to tailor targeted screening programs, facilitating early diagnosis and effective disease control strategies.