Development and validation of prognostic nomograms based on De Ritis ratio and clinicopathological features for patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer

Abstract

Abstract Background Metabolic derangements and systemic inflammation are related to the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC) and the prognoses of these patients. The survival of stage II and III CRC patients existed considerable heterogeneity highlighting the urgent need for new prediction models. This study aimed to develop and validate prognostic nomograms based on preoperative serum liver enzyme as well as evaluate the clinical utility. Methods A total of 4014 stage II/III primary CRC patients pathologically diagnosed from January 2007 to December 2013 were included in this study. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 2409) and a testing set (n = 1605). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to select the independent factors for predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of stage II/III CRC patients. Next, nomograms were constructed and validated to predict the OS and DFS of individual CRC patients. The clinical utility of nomograms, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system was evaluated using time-dependent ROC and decision curve analyses. Results Among seven preoperative serum liver enzyme markers, aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (De Ritis ratio) was identified as an independent factor for predicting both OS and DFS of stage II/III CRC patients. The nomograms incorporated De Ritis ratio and significant clinicopathological features achieved good accuracy in terms of OS and DFS prediction, with C-index of 0.715 and 0.692, respectively. The calibration curve showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The results of time-dependent ROC and decision curve analyses suggested that the nomograms had improved discrimination and greater clinical benefits compared with TNM and AJCC staging. Conclusions De Ritis ratio was an independent predictor in predicting both the OS and DFS of patients with stage II/III CRC. Nomograms based on De Ritis ratio and clinicopathological features showed better clinical utility, which is expected to help clinicians develop appropriate individual treatment strategies for patients with stage II /III CRC.