Nomogram incorporating preoperative pan-immune-inflammation value and monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio for survival prediction in patients with colorectal cancer: a retrospective study

Abstract

Abstract Objective Using the preoperative pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV) and the monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio (MHR) to reflect inflammation, immunity, and cholesterol metabolism, we aim to develop and visualize a novel nomogram model for predicting the survival outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods A total of 172 patients with CRC who underwent radical resection were retrospectively analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted after patients were grouped according to the optimal cut-off values of PIV and MHR. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression to screen the independent prognostic factors. Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed and validated. Results The PIV was significantly associated with tumor location (P < 0.001), tumor maximum diameter (P = 0.008), and T stage (P = 0.019). The MHR was closely related to gender (P = 0.016), tumor maximum diameter (P = 0.002), and T stage (P = 0.038). Multivariate analysis results showed that PIV (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 2.476, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.410–4.348, P = 0.002), MHR (HR = 3.803, 95%CI = 1.609–8.989, P = 0.002), CEA (HR = 1.977, 95%CI = 1.121–3.485, P = 0.019), and TNM stage (HR = 1.759, 95%CI = 1.010–3.063, P = 0.046) were independent prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS). A nomogram incorporating these variables was developed, demonstrating robust predictive accuracy for OS. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the predictive model for 1-, 2-, and 3- year are 0.791,0.768,0.811, respectively. The calibration curves for the probability of survival at 1-, 2-, and 3- year presented a high degree of credibility. Furthermore, Decision curve analysis (DCA) for the probability of survival at 1-, 2-, and 3- year demonstrate the significant clinical utility in predicting survival outcomes. Conclusion Preoperative PIV and MHR are independent risk factors for CRC prognosis. The novel developed nomogram demonstrates a robust predictive ability, offering substantial utility in facilitating the clinical decision-making process.