Construction of a survival prediction model for high-and low -grade UTUC after tumor resection based on “SEER database”: a multicenter study

Abstract

Abstract Background There are differences in survival between high-and low-grade Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma (UTUC). Our study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of patients with high- and low-grade UTUC after tumor resection, and to explore the difference between high- and low-grade patients. Methods Patients confirmed to have UTUC between 2004 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The UTUCs were identified and classified as high- and low-grade, and 1-, 3- and 5-year nomograms were established. The nomogram was then validated using the Chinese multicenter dataset (patients diagnosed in Shandong, China between January 2010 and October 2020). Results In the high-grade UTUC patients, nine important factors related to survival after tumor resection were identified to construct nomogram. The C index of training dataset was 0.740 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.727–0.754), showing good calibration. The C index of internal validation dataset was 0.729(95% CI:0.707–0.750). On the other hand, Two independent predictors were identified to construct nomogram of low-grade UTUC. The C index was 0.714 (95% CI: 0.671–0.758) for the training set,0.731(95% CI:0.670–0.791) for the internal validation dataset. Encouragingly, the nomogram was clinically useful and had a good discriminative ability to identify patients at high risk. Conclusion We constructed a nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system predicting the OS of patients with an initial diagnosis of high-and low-grade UTUC.