Establishment and external validation of prognosis prediction nomogram for patients with distant metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: based on a large population

Abstract

Abstract Background Most patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have developed distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis, while there is rear related nomogram to predict the prognosis. Methods Clinical data of patients pathologically diagnosed of ICC with distant metastasis were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2005 to 2019. Finally, patients diagnosed as ICC in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2014 to 2019 were collected for external verification. All data were divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), the calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the prediction accuracy of the nomogram. Results This study finally included 572 ICC with distant metastasis patients, another 32 patients collected by the author’s hospital were used as external verification. Results showed that age, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors, and nomogram was established. The AUC of predicting 3, 6, 9-month overall survival were 0.866, 0.841 and 0.786. The ROC curves and calibration curves showed that the nomogram had good predictive accuracy, and DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical applicability. Conclusions The nomogram has good accuracy in predicting prognosis of DM-ICC patients, which would be of good significance to improve the prognosis of these patients.