Survival time prediction in patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer based on 18F-FDG PET/CT- derived inter-tumor heterogeneity metrics

Abstract

Abstract Background The presence of heterogeneity is a significant attribute within the context of ovarian cancer. This study aimed to assess the predictive accuracy of models utilizing quantitative 18F-FDG PET/CT derived inter-tumor heterogeneity metrics in determining progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC). Additionally, the study investigated the potential correlation between model risk scores and the expression levels of p53 and Ki-67. Methods A total of 292 patients diagnosed with HGSOC were retrospectively enrolled at Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University (median age: 54 ± 9.4 years). Quantitative inter-tumor heterogeneity metrics were calculated based on conventional measurements and texture features of primary and metastatic lesions in 18F-FDG PET/CT. Conventional models, heterogeneity models, and integrated models were then constructed to predict PFS and OS. Spearman’s correlation coefficient (ρ) was used to evaluate the correlation between immunohistochemical scores of p53 and Ki-67 and model risk scores. Results The C-indices of the integrated models were the highest for both PFS and OS models. The C-indices of the training set and testing set of the integrated PFS model were 0.898 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.881–0.914) and 0.891 (95% CI: 0.860–0.921), respectively. For the integrated OS model, the C-indices of the training set and testing set were 0.894 (95% CI: 0.871–0.917) and 0.905 (95% CI: 0.873–0.936), respectively. The integrated PFS model showed the strongest correlation with the expression levels of p53 (ρ = 0.859, p < 0.001) and Ki-67 (ρ = 0.829, p < 0.001). Conclusions The models based on 18F-FDG PET/CT quantitative inter-tumor heterogeneity metrics exhibited good performance for predicting the PFS and OS of patients with HGSOC. p53 and Ki-67 expression levels were strongly correlated with the risk scores of the integrated predictive models.