Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperatively predicting permanent stoma after rectal cancer surgery with ileostomy: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background For patients with rectal cancer, the utilization of temporary ileostomy (TI) has proven effective in minimizing the occurrence of severe complications post-surgery, such as anastomotic leaks; however, some patients are unable to reverse in time or even develop a permanent stoma (PS). We aimed to determine the preoperative predictors associated with TS failure and develop and validate appropriate predictive models to improve patients’ quality of life. Methods This research included 403 patients with rectal cancer who underwent temporary ileostomies between January 2017 and December 2021. All patients were randomly divided into either the developmental (70%) or validation (30%) group. The independent risk factors for PS were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, a nomogram was constructed, and the prediction probability was estimated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. A calibration plot was used to evaluate the nomogram calibration. Results Of the 403 enrolled patients, 282 were randomized into the developmental group, 121 into the validation group, and 58 (14.39%) had a PS. The development group consisted of 282 patients, of whom 39 (13.81%) had a PS. The validation group consisted of 121 patients, of whom, 19 (15.70%) had a PS; 37 related factors were analyzed in the study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated significant associations between the occurrence of PS and various factors in this patient cohort, including tumor location (OR = 6.631, P = 0.005), tumor markers (OR = 2.309, P = 0.035), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (OR = 4.784, P = 0.004), T4 stage (OR = 2.880, P = 0.036), lymph node metastasis (OR = 4.566, P = 0.001), and distant metastasis (OR = 4.478, P = 0.036). Furthermore, a preoperative nomogram was constructed based on these data and subsequently validated in an independent validation group. Conclusion We identified six independent preoperative risk factors associated with PS following rectal cancer resection and developed a validated nomogram with an area under the ROC curve of 0.7758, which can assist surgeons in formulating better surgical options, such as colostomy, for patients at high risk of PS.