A nomogram based on peripheral lymphocyte for predicting 8-year survival in patients with prostate cancer: a single-center study using LASSO-cox regression

Abstract

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this study was to develop a functional clinical nomogram for predicting 8-year overall survival (OS) of patients with prostate cancer (PCa) primary based on peripheral lymphocyte. Patients and methods Using data from a single-institutional registry of 94 patients with PCa in China, this study identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for survival to build a nomogram. The discriminative ability was measured by concordance index (C-index) and ROC curves (Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves). And the predictive accuracy was measured by the calibration curves. Decision curve analyses (DCA) was used to measure the clinical usefulness. Results A total of 94 patients were included for analysis. Five independent prognostic factors were identified by LASSO-Cox regression and incorporated into the nomogram: age, the T stage, the absolute counts of peripheral CD3(+)CD4(+) T lymphocytes, CD3(-)CD16(+)CD56(+) NK cells and CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the predictive model for 5-, 8-, and 10-year overall survival were 0.81, 0.76, and 0.73, respectively. The calibration curves for probability of 5-,8- and 10-year OS showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The stratification into different risk groups allowed significant distinction. DCA indicated the good clinical application value of the model. Conclusion We developed a novel nomogram that enables personalized prediction of OS for patients diagnosed with PCa. This finding revealed a relative in age and survival rate in PCa, and a more favorable prognosis in patients exhibiting higher levels of CD4 + T, CD4+/CD8 + ratio and CD3(-)CD16(+)CD56(+) NK cells specifically. This clinically applicable prognostic model exhibits promising predictive capabilities, offering valuable support to clinicians in informed decision-making process.