A nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with Ewing sarcoma: a SEER-based study

Abstract

Abstract Background Ewing sarcoma, the second most frequent bone tumor in children and adolescents, is often presented with localized disease or metastatic-related symptoms. In this study, we aim to construct and validate a nomogram for patients with Ewing sarcoma to predict the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods Demographic and clinic pathological characteristics of patients with Ewing sarcoma diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from SEER database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were carried out to identify the independent characteristics. The independent factors were further included into the construction of a nomogram. Finally, c-index and calibration curves were used to validate the nomogram. Results A total of 578 patients were enrolled into our analysis. The results of univariate Cox analysis showed that age, 7th AJCC stage, 7th AJCC T stage, 7th AJCC N stage, 7th AJCC M stage, metastatic status to lung, liver and bone were significant factors. Multivariate Cox analysis was performed and it confirmed age, N stage and bone metastasis as independent variables. Next, a nomogram was constructed using these independent variables in prediction to the 3- and 5-year OS. Furthermore, favorable results with c-indexes (0.757 in training set and 0.697 in validation set) and calibration curves closer to ideal curves indicated the accurate predictive ability of this nomogram. Conclusions The individualized nomogram demonstrated a good ability in prognostic prediction for patients with Ewing sarcoma.