Nomograms based on SUVmax of 18F-FDG PET/CT and clinical parameters for predicting progression-free and overall survival in patients with newly diagnosed extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

Abstract

Abstract Background The prognostic value of 18F-FDG PET/CT in extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL) is not well established. We aimed to develop nomograms for individualized estimates of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with ENKTL using 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters and clinical parameters. Methods A total of 171 patients with newly diagnosed ENKTL undergoing 18F-FDG PET/CT scanning were retrospectively analyzed. Nomograms were constructed according to multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. The predictive and discriminatory capacities of the nomograms were then measured using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves. The C-index, the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to contrast the predictive and discriminatory capacities of the nomograms against with the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI). Results Multivariate analysis demonstrated that pretreatment SUVmax≥9.5, disease stage II and III-IV, elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and elevated β2-microglobulin (β2-MG) had the strongest association with unfavorable PFS and OS. In addition, hemoglobin (Hb) < 120 g/L had a tendency to be associated with PFS. Both nomogram models incorporated SUVmax, Ann Arbor stage, LDH, and β2-MG. The PFS nomogram also included Hb. The nomograms showed good prediction accuracies, with the C-indexes for PFS and OS were 0.729 and 0.736, respectively. The calibration plots for 3-year and 5-year PFS/OS reported good consistency between predicted and observed probabilities for survival time. The PFS and OS were significantly different according to tertiles of nomogram scores (p < 0.001). The C-index and AUCs of the nomograms were higher than that of IPI and KPI. Moreover, DCA showed that the predictive accuracy of the nomograms for PFS and OS were both higher than that of IPI and KPI. Conclusions This study established nomograms that incorporate pretreatment SUVmax and clinical parameters, which could be effective tools for individualized prognostication of both PFS and OS in patients with newly diagnosed ENKTL.