Author:
Duanmu Hongyi,Ren Thomas,Li Haifang,Mehta Neil,Singer Adam J.,Levsky Jeffrey M.,Lipton Michael L.,Duong Tim Q.
Abstract
Abstract
Objectives
To use deep learning of serial portable chest X-ray (pCXR) and clinical variables to predict mortality and duration on invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.
Methods
This is a retrospective study. Serial pCXR and serial clinical variables were analyzed for data from day 1, day 5, day 1–3, day 3–5, or day 1–5 on IMV (110 IMV survivors and 76 IMV non-survivors). The outcome variables were duration on IMV and mortality. With fivefold cross-validation, the performance of the proposed deep learning system was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and correlation analysis.
Results
Predictive models using 5-consecutive-day data outperformed those using 3-consecutive-day and 1-day data. Prediction using data closer to the outcome was generally better (i.e., day 5 data performed better than day 1 data, and day 3–5 data performed better than day 1–3 data). Prediction performance was generally better for the combined pCXR and non-imaging clinical data than either alone. The combined pCXR and non-imaging data of 5 consecutive days predicted mortality with an accuracy of 85 ± 3.5% (95% confidence interval (CI)) and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87 ± 0.05 (95% CI) and predicted the duration needed to be on IMV to within 2.56 ± 0.21 (95% CI) days on the validation dataset.
Conclusions
Deep learning of longitudinal pCXR and clinical data have the potential to accurately predict mortality and duration on IMV in COVID-19 patients. Longitudinal pCXR could have prognostic value if these findings can be validated in a large, multi-institutional cohort.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging,Biomedical Engineering,General Medicine,Biomaterials,Radiological and Ultrasound Technology
Cited by
5 articles.
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