International relations challenges and sustainable development in developing countries after 2022: conceptualization of the risk assessment model

Abstract

Abstract Background UN defined Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development promotes international relations as a platform of cooperation between all stakeholders to achieve peace, stability, and prosperity but faces significant challenges in the post-2022 period. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, the prospects for sustainable development as a component of international relations are one of the challenges. The main objective of this paper is the conceptualization of a model for sustainable development risk analysis, intended for developing countries with underdeveloped or nonexistent monitoring systems. Methods Theory synthesis, adaption, and model development were used in the conceptual method due to empirical research limitations. Analysis, induction, and modeling were utilized to evaluate qualitative and quantitative sustainable development risk assessment approaches and anticipate their advantages and disadvantages. Results The theoretical part of the research points to the need to consider the risks to implementing sustainable development (primarily future energy development and climate change) that arise from changes in international security. The novel result of the paper is the proposal of the concept Model for sustainable development implementation risk assessment in developing countries, derived from the following inputs: (a) an overview of the development of international relations and attitudes towards sustainable development; (b) a proposal of a generic model for risk assessment; (c) a prediction of the sustainable development future from the perspective of international relations and defined risks for its implementation. A set of indicators is proposed by dimensions: social, economic–political, and energy-environment. Conclusions The future of sustainable development can be considered at a certain degree of risk in light of the global crisis after 2022. Changes in geopolitical constellations, armed conflicts, population growth, climate change, and the reallocation of financial resources are the factors that will largely determine the commitment of individual countries to implementing sustainable development. Therefore, sustainable development risk assessment must be revisited, improved, and closely monitored. The development of models based on the specificities of each country is highly recommended. Methodological notes are presented.