Author:
Huang Yong,Deng Te,Yu Shicheng,Gu Jing,Huang Cunrui,Xiao Gexin,Hao Yuantao
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Over the last decade, major outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in Asian countries, resulting in thousands of deaths among children. However, less is known regarding the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD in children. This study aims at quantifying the relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of HFMD among children in Guangzhou, China.
Methods
The association between weekly HFMD cases in children aged <15 years and meteorological variables in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM) and time-series method, after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, holiday effects, influenza period and delayed effects.
Results
Temperature and relative humidity with one week lag were significantly associated with HFMD infection among children. We found that a 1°C increase in temperature led to an increase of 1.86% (95% CI: 0.92, 2.81%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group. A one percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 1.42% (95% CI: 0.97, 1.87%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group.
Conclusions
This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD in children was associated with high average temperature and high relative humidity. The one-week delay in the effects of temperature and relative humidity on HFMD is consistent with the enterovirus incubation period and the potential time lag between onset of children’s sickness and parental awareness and response.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference50 articles.
1. Cardosa MJ, Perera D, Brown BA, Cheon D, Chan HM, Chan KP, Cho H, McMinn P: Molecular epidemiology of human enterovirus 71 strains and recent outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific region: comparative analysis of the VP1 and VP4 genes. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003, 9 (4): 461-468.
2. World Health Organization: A guide to clinical management and public health response for hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). 2011, http://www.wpro.who.int/emerging_diseases/documents/HFMDGuidance/en/index.html,
3. Hosoya M, Kawasaki Y, Sato M, Honzumi K, Hayashi A, Hiroshima T, Ishiko H, Kato K, Suzuki H: Genetic diversity of coxsackievirus A16 associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Japan from 1983 to 2003. J Clin Microbiol. 2007, 45 (1): 112-120. 10.1128/JCM.00718-06.
4. Hosoya M, Kawasaki Y, Sato M, Honzumi K, Kato A, Hiroshima T, Ishiko H, Suzuki H: Genetic diversity of enterovirus 71 associated with hand, foot and mouth disease epidemics in Japan from 1983 to 2003. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2006, 25 (8): 691-694. 10.1097/01.inf.0000227959.89339.c3.
5. Ma E, Lam T, Chan KC, Wong C, Chuang SK: Changing epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Hong Kong, 2001–2009. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2010, 63 (6): 422-426.
Cited by
133 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献