Modeling the distribution of Aloe ankoberensis and A. debrana under different climate change scenarios in North Shewa Zone, Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract Background Aloeankoberensis M.G. Gilbert & Sebsebe and A.debrana Christian are Ethiopian endemic species currently classified as endangered and least concern, respectively under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories. Recent studies indicate that climate change is anticipated to significantly influence the distribution of plant species. Therefore, this study aimed to model the distribution of A.ankoberensis and A.debrana under different climate change scenarios in the North Shewa Zone, Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia. Thirty-six and 397 georeferenced presence points for A.ankoberensis and A.debrana, respectively, and 12 environmental variables were used to simulate their current and future distributions. The ensemble model approach was used to examine the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatic suitability for both species under three shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) climate scenarios (SSP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Results The performance of ensemble model was excellent for A.ankoberensis with score of area under curve (AUC) 0.96 and true skill statistics (TSS) 0.88, and good for A.debrana with score of AUC 0.87 and TSS 0.63. The main variables that affected the species' distributions were mean diurnal range of temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation. According to the model, under the current climate conditions, 98.32%, 1.01%, 0.52%, and 0.15% were not suitable, lowly, moderately, and highly suitable areas, respectively for A.ankoberensis, and 63.89%, 23.35%, 12.54%, and 0.21% were not suitable, lowly, moderately and highly suitable areas, respectively for A.debrana. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats of these species could shrink. In addition, under all climate change scenarios, it is anticipated that highly suitable areas for both species and moderately suitable areas for A.ankoberensis will be lost completely in the future unless crucial interventions are done on time. Conclusions The results indicate that the future may witness a decline in suitable habitat for A.ankoberensis and A.debrana, which leads to increasing threat of extinction. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a conservation plan and enhance climate change adaptation strategies to mitigate the loss of suitable habitats for these highland and sub-Afroalpine endemic Aloe species.