Multiple scenario simulation and optimization of an urban green infrastructure network based on complex network theory: a case study in Harbin City, China

Abstract

Abstract Background Urban green infrastructure (GI) networks play a significant role in ensuring regional ecological security; however, they are highly vulnerable to the influence of urban development, and the optimization of GI networks with better connectivity and resilience under different development scenarios has become a practical problem that urgently needs to be solved. Taking Harbin, a megacity in Northeast China, as the case study, we set five simulation scenarios by adjusting the economic growth rate and extracted the GI network in multiple scenarios by integrating the minimal cumulative resistance model and the gravity model. The low-degree-first (LDF) strategy of complex network theory was introduced to optimize the GI network, and the optimization effect was verified by robustness analysis. Results The results showed that in the 5% economic growth scenario, the GI network structure was more complex, and the connectivity of the network was better, while in the other scenarios, the network structure gradually degraded with economic growth. After optimization by the LDF strategy, the average degree of the GI network in multiple scenarios increased from 2.368, 2.651, 2.189, 1.972, and 1.847 to 2.783, 3.125, 2.643, 2.414, and 2.322, respectively, and the GI network structure connectivity and resilience were significantly enhanced in all scenarios. Conclusions Economic growth did not necessarily lead to degradation of the GI network; there was still room for economic development in the study area, but it was limited under existing GI conditions, and the LDF strategy was an effective method to optimize the GI network. The research results provide a new perspective for the study of GI network protection with urban economic growth and serve as a methodological reference for urban GI network optimization.