Time to first optimal glycemic control and its predictors among type 1 diabetic children in Bahir Dar city public referral hospitals, North West Ethiopia: a retrospective follow up study

Abstract

Abstract Background Recognizing the level of glycemic control of a client is an important measure/tool to prevent acquiring complications and risk of death from diabetes. However, the other most important variable, which is the time that the patient stayed in that poor glycemic level before reaching optimal glycemic control, has not been studied so far. Therefore, this study aim to estimate time to first optimal glycemic control and identify predictors among type 1 diabetic children in Bahir Dar city public referral hospitals, Northwest, Ethiopia, 2021. Methods A Retrospective cohort study was conducted at Bahir Dar city public referral hospitals among a randomly selected sample of 385 patients with type 1 diabetes who were on follow up from January 1, 2016 to February30, 2021.Data were collected by using a data abstraction tool and then entered into Epi-data version 4.6 and exported into STATA 14.0 statistical software. Descriptive statistics, Kaplan Meier plots and median survival times, Log-rank test and Cox-proportional hazard regression were used for reporting the findings of this study. After performing Cox-proportional hazard regression, model goodness-of-fit and assumptions were checked. Finally, the association between independent variables and time to first optimal glycemic control in months was assessed using the multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard model and variables with a p-value < 0.05 were considered as statistically significant. Results Median survival time to first optimal glycemic control among type 1 diabetic clients was 8 months (95%CI: 6.9–8.9). The first optimal glycemic achievement rate was 8.2 (95%CI: 7.2–9.2) per 100 person/month observation. Factors that affect time to first optimal glycemic control were age > 10–14 years (AHR = 0.32;95%CI = 0.19–0.55), increased weight (AHR = 0.96;95%CI = 0.94–0.99), having primary care giver (AHR = 2.09;95%CI = 1.39–3.13), insulin dose (AHR = 1.05;95%CI = 1.03–1.08), duration of diabetes ≥4 years (AHR = 0.64;95%CI = 0.44–0.94), adherence to diabetic care (AHR = 9.72;95%CI = 6.09–15.51), carbohydrate counting (AHR = 2.43;95%CI = 1.12–5.26), and comorbidity (AHR = 0.72;95%CI = 0.53–0.98). Conclusion The median survival time to first optimal glycemic control in this study was long. Age, weight, primary care giver, insulin dose, duration of diabetes, adherence, and carbohydrate counting, including history of comorbidity were determinant factors. Giving attention for overweight and comorbid illness prevention, increasing either the dose or frequency of insulin during initial treatment; counseling parent (for both the mother and father) about adherence to diabetic care focusing on insulin drugs and how to audit their children’s diet as prescription helps to reduce the length of glycemic control.