Predictors associated with CD4 cell count changes over time among HIV-infected children on anti-retroviral therapy follow-up in Mekelle General Hospital, Northern Ethiopia, 2019: a retrospective longitudinal study

Abstract

Abstract Introduction AIDS continues to be a serious global public health issue. It targets CD4 cells and immunological cells, which are in charge of the body's resistance against pathogenic pathogens. In situations with limited resources, CD4 cell measurement is essential for assessing treatment responses and clinical judgments in HIV-infected children receiving Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART). The volatility of CD4 cells during ART follow-up is still largely uncharacterized, and there are few new datasets on CD4 cell changes over time. Therefore, the purpose of this analysis was to identify the factors that were predictive of CD4 cell count changes over time in children who started ART at Mekelle General Hospital in northern Ethiopia. Methods A retrospective follow-up study was done. 437 patients in Mekelle general hospital, northern Ethiopia, from 2014–2016 were involved. All patients who have started anti-retrieval treatment (ART) and measured their CD4 cell count at least twice, including the baseline and those who initiated ART treatment, were included in the study population. An exploratory data analysis and linear mixed model analysis were used to explore the predictors of CD4 cell count change in patients and consider variability within and between patients. Results This study found the correlation variation explained in cells accounted for between patients was 61.3%, and the remaining 38.7% variation existed within. This indicates that there is a substantial change in random slope and intercept between and within patients. WHO clinical stage IV (β = -1.30, 95% CI: -2.37, -0.23), co-infection HIV/TB (β = -1.78, 95% CI: -2.58, -0.98), children aged 2–5 (β = -0.43; 95% CI: -0.82, -0.04), and 6–14 years (β = -1.02; 95% CI: -1.47, -0.56), non-opportunistic infection (β = 1.33, 95% CI: 0.51, 2.14), and bedridden functional status (β = -1.74, 95% CI: -2.81, -0.68) were predictors of cell changes over time. Conclusions This study found that patients receiving ART experienced a significant change in CD4 cells over time. Because 61.3% of the variation in CD4 cells explained between patients and the remaining 38.7% within patients, such nested data structures are often strong correlation evidence. Co-infection of HIV/TB, functional status, age category of children, WHO clinical stage, and opportunistic infections are potential predictors of CD4 cells count change. Hence, special guidance and attention is also required, especially for those patients who have an opportunistic infections, higher WHO clinical stages, co-infections with HIV and TB, and bedridden functional status.