Establishment of prediction model for mortality risk of pancreatic cancer: a retrospective study

Abstract

Abstract Background and aim Pancreatic cancer possesses a high prevalence and mortality rate among other cancers. Despite the low survival rate of this cancer type, the early prediction of this disease has a crucial role in decreasing the mortality rate and improving the prognosis. So, this study. Materials and methods In this retrospective study, we used 654 alive and dead PC cases to establish the prediction model for PC. The six chosen machine learning algorithms and prognostic factors were utilized to build the prediction models. The importance of the predictive factors was assessed using the relative importance of a high-performing algorithm. Results The XG-Boost with AU-ROC of 0.933 (95% CI= [0.906–0.958]) and AU-ROC of 0.836 (95% CI= [0.789–0.865] in internal and external validation modes were considered as the best-performing model for predicting the mortality risk of PC. The factors, including tumor size, smoking, and chemotherapy, were considered the most influential for prediction. Conclusion The XG-Boost gained more performance efficiency in predicting the mortality risk of PC patients, so this model can promote the clinical solutions that doctors can achieve in healthcare environments to decrease the mortality risk of these patients.