Interpretable machine learning model for predicting acute kidney injury in critically ill patients

Abstract

Abstract Background This study aimed to create a method for promptly predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) in intensive care patients by applying interpretable, explainable artificial intelligence techniques. Methods Population data regarding intensive care patients were derived from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database from 2008 to 2019. Machine learning (ML) techniques with six methods were created to construct the predicted models for AKI. The performance of each ML model was evaluated by comparing the areas under the curve (AUC). Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) method and Shapley Additive exPlanation values were used to decipher the best model. Results According to inclusion and exclusion criteria, 53,150 severely sick individuals were included in the present study, of which 42,520 (80%) were assigned to the training group, and 10,630 (20%) were allocated to the validation group. Compared to the other five ML models, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model greatly predicted AKI following ICU admission, with an AUC of 0.816. The top four contributing variables of the XGBoost model were SOFA score, weight, mechanical ventilation, and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II. An AKI and Non-AKI cases were predicted separately using the LIME algorithm. Conclusion Overall, the constructed clinical feature-based ML models are excellent in predicting AKI in intensive care patients. It would be constructive for physicians to provide early support and timely intervention measures to intensive care patients at risk of AKI.