Research on early warning of renal damage in hypertensive patients based on the stacking strategy

Abstract

Abstract Background Among the problems caused by hypertension, early renal damage is often ignored. It can not be diagnosed until the condition is severe and irreversible damage occurs. So we decided to screen and explore related risk factors for hypertensive patients with early renal damage and establish the early-warning model of renal damage based on the data-mining method to achieve an early diagnosis for hypertensive patients with renal damage. Methods With the aid of an electronic information management system for hypertensive out-patients, we collected 513 cases of original, untreated hypertensive patients. We recorded their demographic data, ambulatory blood pressure parameters, blood routine index, and blood biochemical index to establish the clinical database. Then we screen risk factors for early renal damage through feature engineering and use Random Forest, Extra-Trees, and XGBoost to build an early-warning model, respectively. Finally, we build a new model by model fusion based on the Stacking strategy. We use cross-validation to evaluate the stability and reliability of each model to determine the best risk assessment model. Results According to the degree of importance, the descending order of features selected by feature engineering is the drop rate of systolic blood pressure at night, the red blood cell distribution width, blood pressure circadian rhythm, the average diastolic blood pressure at daytime, body surface area, smoking, age, and HDL. The average precision of the two-dimensional fusion model with full features based on the Stacking strategy is 0.89685, and selected features are 0.93824, which is greatly improved. Conclusions Through feature engineering and risk factor analysis, we select the drop rate of systolic blood pressure at night, the red blood cell distribution width, blood pressure circadian rhythm, and the average diastolic blood pressure at daytime as early-warning factors of early renal damage in patients with hypertension. On this basis, the two-dimensional fusion model based on the Stacking strategy has a better effect than the single model, which can be used for risk assessment of early renal damage in hypertensive patients.