Organising a juvenile ratio monitoring programme for 10 key waterbird species in the Yangtze River floodplain: analysis and proposals

Abstract

Abstract Background In the face of continued degradation and loss of wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain (YRF), there is an urgent need to monitor the abundance and distribution of wintering waterbirds. To understand fully observed annual changes, we need to monitor demographic rates to understand factors affecting global population size. Annual reproduction success contributes to dynamic changes in population size and age structure, so an assessment of the juvenile ratio (i.e. first winter birds as a proportion of total number aged) of overwintering waterbirds can be an important indicator of the reproductive success in the preceding breeding season. Methods During 2016–2019, we sampled juvenile ratios among 10 key waterbird species from the wetlands in the YRF. Based on these data, we here attempt to establish a simple, efficient, focused and reliable juvenile ratio monitoring scheme, to assess consistently and accurately relative annual breeding success and its contribution to the age structure among these waterbird species. Results We compared juvenile ratio data collected throughout the winter and found that the optimal time for undertaking these samples was in the early stages of arrival for migratory waterbirds reaching their wintering area (early to mid-December). We recommend counting consistently at key points (i.e. those where > 1% biogeographical flyway population were counted) at sites of major flyway importance (Poyang Lake, East Dongting Lake, Shengjin Lake, Caizi Lake, Longgan Lake and Chen Lake). Based on this, the error rate of the programme (155 planned points, the count of 10 waterbird species is 826–8955) is less than 5%. Conclusions We established a juvenile ratio monitoring programme for 10 key waterbird species in the wetlands of the YRF, and discuss the feasibility and necessity of implementing such a future programme, and how to use these data in our monitoring and understanding of the population dynamics of these waterbird populations.