Comprehensive study of thunderstorm indices threshold favorable for thunderstorms during monsoon season using WRF–ARW model and ERA5 over India

Abstract

Abstract Introduction The current research investigates into the application of various thunderstorm indices to predict severe thunderstorm occurrences during the monsoon season across four distinct regions in India. Methods: The study assesses the prediction model’s efficacy using various skill scores and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been integrated for 30 h with double moment microphysics scheme NSSL-17 which accurately reproduces vertical and meteorological measures. Objective Furthermore, it investigates fifteen thunderstorm indices derived from the ERA5 dataset to identify the most effective index for forecasting severe thunderstorms. Results The results indicate that combining thunderstorm indices with skill scores, such as the Heidke Skill Score and True Skill Statistic, enhances the accuracy of severe thunderstorm predictions in the Indian monsoon season. The accurate predictions rely on determining optimal thresholds for each index. The study emphasizes the importance of using multiple indices rather relying solely on single measure for predicting severe thunderstorms. Advanced indices like the Energy Helicity Index (EHI) and Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) perform well in forecasting extreme severe thunderstorms due to their strong reliance on wind shears. The EHI (> 1), and SCP (≥ 3.5), STP (≥ 1.2) along with low SRH at 3 km (100 m2/s2), indicated no evidence of helicity or tornado activity during the event. On the other hand, the CAPE, K Index, and VT Index demonstrate robust predictive capabilities for non-severe category thunderstorms. Conclusions Integrating numerous thunderstorm indices improves meteorologists’ forecasts, ensuring public safety. Based on this work, future research can improve severe weather forecasting models’ accuracy and reliability.