Impacts of climate change on regional hydrological regimes of the Wujiang River watershed in the Karst area, Southwest China

Abstract

Abstract Background The impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Wujiang River watershed of Guizhou Province, Southwest China, were investigated by using a monthly distributed hydrological model and the two–parameter climate elasticity of streamflow approach. Results Results showed two different approaches obtained almost identical results in term of precipitation elasticity of streamflow, which is about 1.42 across different emission scenarios. Precipitation is the primary factor controlling runoff generation. However, the effects of temperature on the streamflow cannot be neglected with evidences of opposite signs of future precipitation and streamflow; the slight decline of streamflow is associated with an increase of precipitation and a higher temperature. Conclusion While the magnitudes of annual mean streamflow responses are minor, there would be a seasonal shift: drier spring and wetter summer would potentially result in the increasing frequency of spring drought events and summer flooding, and would produce serious challenge for water resources planning and management for Southwest China.