Growth instability index, and decomposition effect on production of large cardamom in Nepal

Abstract

Abstract Background Large cardamom is the third most costly and oldest spice in the world, then saffron and vanilla, which is referred to as "black gold." Nepal's exportable, high-value subsector produces large cardamom (Amomum subulatum Roxb.) for sale in particular global markets. This study was to assess large cardamom's compound annual growth rate (CAGR), instability index, and influence of decomposition in Nepal. Data were imported from Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, Nepal (MOALD) & Trade Export Promotion Centre, Nepal (TEPC), and the custom office in Birtamod, Nepal, from 2009 to 2020. The compound growth rate was calculated by an exponential function. The area, production, productivity, unit price of large cardamom before export at birtamod custom office, export quantity, and value of large cardamom were evaluated by variation (CV) and the Cuddy–Della Valle index (CDVI). Stability and growth performance were analyzed to assess the proportional impact of area and yield on the overall production of larger cardamom. Results Area, production, and yield had compound annual growth rate of 1.25, 2.0, and 0.85, respectively, revealing a major expansion of Nepalese large cardamom. The Mechi corridor has proven favorable and rapid development rates, indicating its potential but there was a reduction in large cardamom farming indicating negative CAGR of − 0.68 in the Koshi corridor. The area, production, and yield CV and CDVI were comparatively low, indicated stability in large cardamom farming. With a negative CAGR of − 1.01, the average price showed a downward trend over time. While the export quantity had a positive CAGR of 0.67, the export value had a positive CAGR of 3.84, suggesting a considerable increase. Conclusions The results emphasized the need for deliberate actions to increase stability, yield levels, market diversification, and lessen reliance on a single market for significant cardamom exports. Finally, prioritizing farmer capacity building programs will increase their proficiency with sustainable farming methods and resource management.