Epidemiologic and import risk analysis of Peste des petits ruminants between 2010 and 2018 in India

Abstract

Abstract Background Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a serious disease that affects goats, sheep and other small ruminants. As one of the earliest and most serious countries, PPR has seriously threatened India's animal husbandry economy. Results In this study, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the PPR in India outbreaks were analyzed. Between 2010 and 2018, the epidemic in India broke out all over the country in a cluster distribution. Epidemic clusters in northern and southern India are at higher risk, and the outbreak time of PPR has significant seasonality. The results of the analysis of the development and transmission of PPR under the natural infection conditions showed that the PPR outbreak in India reached a peak within 15 days. Finally, the quantitative risk analysis results based on scenario tree show showed that the average probability of infecting PPRV in live sheep exported from India was 1.45 × 10–4. Conclusions This study analyzed the prevalence of PPR in India. The analysis of transmission dynamics on the development of the epidemic provides a reference for the prevention and control of the epidemic. At the same time, it provides risk analysis and suggestions on trade measures for the trading countries of India.