Combining serum inflammation indexes at baseline and post treatment could predict pathological efficacy to anti‑PD‑1 combined with neoadjuvant chemotherapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Abstract Background The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) have been used to predict therapeutic response in different tumors. However, no assessments of their usefulness have been performed in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients receiving anti‑PD‑1 combined with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods The respective data of 64 ESCC patients receiving anti‑PD‑1 combined with neoadjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed. Whether NLR, LMR, PLR, and SII at baseline and post-treatment might predict pathological response to anti‑PD‑1 plus neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and cutoff values of these parameters were all determined by ROC curve analysis. Results NLR (cutoff = 3.173, AUC = 0.644, 95% CI 0.500–0.788, P = 0.124, sensitivity = 1.000, specificity = 0.373), LMR (cutoff = 1.622, AUC = 0.631, 95% CI 0.477–0.784, P = 0.161, sensitivity = 0.917, specificity = 0.137), PLR (cutoff = 71.108, AUC = 0.712, 95% CI 0.575–0.849, P = 0.023, sensitivity = 1.000, specificity = 0.059), and SII at baseline (cutoff = 559.266, AUC = 0.681, 95% CI 0.533–0.830, P = 0.052, sensitivity = 0.373, specificity = 1.000) seemed to be a useful predictor for distinguishing responders from non-responders. Combining NLR with SII at baseline (AUC = 0.729, 95% CI 0.600–0.858, P = 0.014, sensitivity = 0.917, specificity = 0.510), LMR and SII at baseline (AUC = 0.735, 95% CI 0.609–0.861, P = 0.012, sensitivity = 1.000 specificity = 0.471), PLR and SII at baseline (AUC = 0.716, 95% CI 0.584–0.847, P = 0.021, sensitivity = 1.000 specificity = 0.431), and LMR and PLR at post-treatment in the third period (AUC = 0.761, 95% CI 0.605–0.917, P = 0.010, sensitivity = 0.800, specificity = 0.696) might slightly increase the prediction ability to determine patients who have response or no response. Finally, combining LMR at baseline, SII at post-treatment in the second period with PLR at post-treatment in the third period could be considered a better predictor for discriminating responders and non-responders than single or dual biomarkers (AUC = 0.879, 95% CI 0.788–0.969, P = 0.0001, sensitivity = 0.909, specificity = 0.800). Conclusions The models we constructed allowed for the accurate and efficient stratification of ESCC patients receiving anti-PD-1 plus chemotherapy and are easily applicable for clinical practice at no additional cost.