Prognostic significance of an innovative staging system based on the logarithmic odds of positive lymph nodes for resectable gastroesophageal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiation: a population-based study with external validation of data

Abstract

Abstract Background After receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiation, the number of examined lymph nodes in resectable gastroesophageal cancer (GEC) will decrease, this may not accurately determine the N staging. So our study evaluates the clinical significance of a new staging model based on the logarithmic odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) in patients with GEC after receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Methods A total of 1 130 patients with pathologically diagnosed GEC who received neoadjuvant chemoradiation from 2004 to 2019 included in the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Results (SEER) database were selected for analysis. Lymph nodes were staged according to the AJCC TNM staging system (eighth edition) and LODDS. Patient prognosis across the two systems were evaluated by the Kaplan–Meier method, differences in node staging were evaluated by the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. In addition, 914 patients from our center were externally validated. Results Compared to the traditional TNM staging system, the new TLODDSM staging system was comprised of stage I, stage II, stage IIIA, stage IIIB, and stage IVA, and decision curve analysis showed that the new staging system had higher benefits for different decision thresholds than the old staging system. The Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion of the new staging system was lower than those of the old staging system, indicating the sensitivity of the TLODDSM staging system for predicting the prognosis of patients was higher. In addition, stage-IIIB or -IVA patients in the new staging system benefited from adjuvant chemotherapy. The externally validated data from our center supported this conclusion. Conclusions Compared to the TNM staging system, the TLODDSM staging system has significant advantages in predicting prognosis of patients with GEC who have completed neoadjuvant chemoradiation, guiding the adjuvant chemotherapy for patients.