COVID-19 infection and 2-year mortality in nursing home residents who survived the first wave of the pandemic

Abstract

Abstract Background During the first COVID-19 pandemic wave (1st CoPW), nursing homes (NHs) experienced a high rate of COVID-19 infection and death. Residents who survived the COVID-19 infection may have become frailer. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of having a COVID-19 infection during the 1st CoPW for 2-year mortality in NH residents. Methods This was a retrospective study conducted in three NHs. Residents who had survived the 1st CoPW (March to May 2020) were included. The diagnosis of COVID-19 was based on the results of a positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction test. The collected data also included age, sex, length of residence in the NH, disability status, legal guardianship status, nutritional status, need for texture-modified food, hospitalization or Emergency Department visits during lockdown and SARS-COV2 vaccination status during the follow-up. Non-adjusted and adjusted Cox models were used to analyse factors associated with 2-year post-1st CoPW mortality. Results Among the 315 CoPW1 survivors (72% female, mean age 88 years, 48% with severe disability), 35% presented with COVID-19. Having a history of COVID-19 was not associated with 2-year mortality: hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval] = 0.96 [0.81–1.13], p = 0.62. The factors independently associated with 2-year mortality were older age (for each additional year, HR = 1.05 [1.03–1.08], p < 0.01), severe disability vs. moderate or no disability (HR = 1.35 [1.12–1.63], p < 0.01) and severe malnutrition vs. no malnutrition (HR = 1.29 [1.04–1.60], p = 0.02). Considering that vaccination campaign started during the follow-up, mortality was associated with severe malnutrition before and severe disability after the start of the campaign. Vaccination was independently associated with better survival (HR 0.71 [0.55–0.93], p = 0.02). Conclusions Having survived a COVID-19 infection during the 1st CoPW did not affect subsequent 2-year survival in older adults living in NHs. Severe malnutrition and disability remained strong predictor of mortality in this population, whereas vaccination was associated to better survival.