Improvement of scoring system used before discharge to predict 30-day all-cause unplanned readmission in geriatric population: a prospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background Data taken from tertiary referral hospitals in Indonesia suggested readmission rate in older population ranging between 18.1 and 36.3%. Thus, it is crucial to identify high risk patients who were readmitted. Our previous study found several important predictors, despite unsatisfactory discrimination value. Methods We aimed to investigate whether comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) -based modification to the published seven-point scoring system may increase the discrimination value. We conducted a prospective cohort study in July–September 2022 and recruited patients aged 60 years and older admitted to the non-surgical ward and intensive coronary care unit. The ROC curve was made based on the four variables included in the prior study. We conducted bivariate and multivariate analyses, and derived a new scoring system with its discrimination value. Results Of 235 subjects, the incidence of readmission was 32.3% (95% CI 26–38%). We established a new scoring system consisting of 4 components. The scoring system had maximum score of 21 and incorporated malignancy (6 points), delirium (4 points), length of stay ≥ 10 days (4 points), and being at risk of malnutrition or malnourished (7 points), with a good calibration test. The C-statistic value was 0.835 (95% CI 0.781–0.880). The optimal cut-off point was ≥ 8 with a sensitivity of 90.8% and a specificity of 54.7%. Conclusions Malignancy, delirium, length of stay ≥ 10 days, and being at risk of malnutrition or malnourished are predictors for 30-day all-cause unplanned readmission. The sensitive scoring system is a strong model to identify whether an individual is at higher risk for readmission. The new CGA-based scoring system had higher discrimination value than that of the previous seven-point scoring system.