Author:
Jiang Shimin,Li Yetong,Jiao Yuanyuan,Zhang Danyang,Wang Ying,Li Wenge
Abstract
Abstract
Background
The use of creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-estimating equations to evaluate kidney function in elderly individuals does not appear to offer any performance advantages. We therefore aimed to develop an accurate GFR-estimating tool for this age group.
Methods
Adults aged ≥ 65 years who underwent GFR measurement by technetium-99 m-diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (99mTc-DTPA) renal dynamic imaging were included. Data were randomly split into a training set containing 80% of the participants and a test set containing the remaining 20% of the subjects. The Back propagation neural network (BPNN) approach was used to derive a novel GFR estimation tool; then we compared the performance of the BPNN tool with six creatinine-based equations (Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI], European Kidney Function Consortium [EKFC], Berlin Initiative Study-1 [BIS1], Lund-Malmö Revised [LMR], Asian modified CKD-EPI, and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD]) in the test cohort. Three equation performance criteria were considered: bias (difference between measured GFR and estimated GFR), precision (interquartile range [IQR] of the median difference), and accuracy P30 (percentage of GFR estimates that are within 30% of measured GFR).
Results
The study included 1,222 older adults. The mean age of both the training cohort (n = 978) and the test cohort (n = 244) was 72 ± 6 years, with 544 (55.6%) and 129 (52.9%) males, respectively. The median bias of BPNN was 2.06 ml/min/1.73 m2, which was smaller than that of LMR (4.59 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.03), and higher than that of the Asian modified CKD-EPI (-1.43 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.02). The median bias between BPNN and each of CKD-EPI (2.19 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.31), EKFC (-1.41 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.26), BIS1 (0.64 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.99), and MDRD (1.11 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.45) was not significant. However, the BPNN had the highest precision IQR (14.31 ml/min/1.73 m2) and the greatest accuracy P30 among all equations (78.28%). At measured GFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m2, the BPNN has highest accuracy P30 (70.69%), and highest precision IQR (12.46 ml/min/1.73 m2). The biases of BPNN and BIS1 equations were similar (0.74 [-1.55−2.78] and 0.24 [-2.58−1.61], respectively), smaller than any other equation.
Conclusions
The novel BPNN tool is more accurate than the currently available creatinine-based GFR estimation equations in an older population and could be recommended for routine clinical use.
Funder
National Key Clinical Specialty Capacity Building Project
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Geriatrics and Gerontology
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