Changes in emergency department visits and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective analysis of 956 hospitals

Abstract

Abstract Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, many non-COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits were indirectly affected. ED visits and mortality were assessed during different pandemic time periods compared with pre-pandemic. Methods The study used data from 41 million Iran Health Insurance Organization members. The outcomes were non-COVID-19 ED visits and associated mortality in 956 hospitals. An analysis of ED visits was conducted both for all-cause and cause-specific conditions: cardiovascular diseases (CVD), mental and substance use disorders, unintentional injuries, and self-harm. In addition, total in-hospital ED mortality was analyzed. A negative binomial regression and a Poisson regression with a log link were used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of visits and mortality relative risk (RR). Results 1,789,831 ED visits and 12,377 deaths were reported during the study. Pre-pandemic (Sep 2019 to Feb 2020), there were 2,767 non-COVID-19 visits rate per million person-month, which decreased to 1,884 during the first COVID-19 wave with a national lockdown from Feb 20 to Apr 19, 2020 (IRR 0.68, [0.56–0.84]). The non-COVID-19 ED mortality risk was 8.17 per 1,000 visit-month during the pre-pandemic period, rising to 12.80 during the first wave of COVID-19 (RR 1.57, [1.49–165]). Non-COVID-19 ED visit rates decreased during the first pandemic year from Sep 2020 to Feb 2021 (IRR 0.73, [0.63–0.86]), but increased after COVID-19 vaccination two years later from Sep 2021 to Feb 2022 (IRR 1.11, [0.96–0.17]). The total ED mortality risk for non-COVID-19 was significantly higher after the COVID-19 outbreak in the first (RR 1.66, [1.59–1.72]) and second years (RR 1.27, [1.22–1.32]) of the pandemic. The visit incidence rate for mental health and substance use disorders declined from 8.18 per million person-month to 4.57 (IRR 0.53, [0.32 to 0.90]) in the first wave. In the second year, unintentional injury visits increased significantly compared with pre-pandemic (IRR 1.63, [1.30–2.03]). As compared to before the pandemic, there was no significant change in CVD and self-harm visit rates during the pandemic. Cardiac arrest was the leading cause of death in Iran hospitals’ EDs. Conclusion In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-COVID-19 hospital ED visits declined and mortality risk increased. Despite two years since the COVID-19 outbreak, non-COVID-19 ED mortality risk remains high.