Insights and challenges of insecticide resistance modelling in malaria vectors: a review

Abstract

Abstract Background Malaria is one of the most devastating tropical diseases, resulting in loss of lives each year, especially in children under the age of 5 years. Malaria burden, related deaths and stall in the progress against malaria transmission is evident, particularly in countries that have moderate or high malaria transmission. Hence, mitigating malaria spread requires information on the distribution of vectors and the drivers of insecticide resistance (IR). However, owing to the impracticality in establishing the critical need for real-world information at every location, modelling provides an informed best guess for such information. Therefore, this review examines the various methodologies used to model spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns of IR within populations of malaria vectors, incorporating pest-biology parameters, adopted ecological principles, and the associated modelling challenges. Methods The review focused on the period ending March 2023 without imposing restrictions on the initial year of publication, and included articles sourced from PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. It was also limited to publications that deal with modelling of IR distribution across spatial and temporal dimensions and excluded articles solely focusing on insecticide susceptibility tests or articles not published in English. After rigorous selection, 33 articles met the review's elibility criteria and were subjected to full-text screening. Results Results show the popularity of Bayesian geostatistical approaches, and logistic and static models, with limited adoption of dynamic modelling approaches for spatial and temporal IR modelling. Furthermore, our review identifies the availability of surveillance data and scarcity of comprehensive information on the potential drivers of IR as major impediments to developing holistic models of IR evolution. Conclusions The review notes that incorporating pest-biology parameters, and ecological principles into IR models, in tandem with fundamental ecological concepts, potentially offers crucial insights into the evolution of IR. The results extend our knowledge of IR models that provide potentially accurate results, which can be translated into policy recommendations to combat the challenge of IR in malaria control. Graphical Abstract