Modelling the dynamic basic reproduction number of dengue based on MOI of Aedes albopictus derived from a multi-site field investigation in Guangzhou, a subtropical region

Abstract

Abstract Background More than half of the global population lives in areas at risk of dengue (DENV) transmission. Developing an efficient risk prediction system can help curb dengue outbreaks, but multiple variables, including mosquito-based surveillance indicators, still constrain our understanding. Mosquito or oviposition positive index (MOI) has been utilized in field surveillance to monitor the wild population density of Aedes albopictus in Guangzhou since 2005. Methods Based on the mosquito surveillance data using Mosq-ovitrap collection and human landing collection (HLC) launched at 12 sites in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2017, we established a MOI-based model of the basic dengue reproduction number (R0) using the classical Ross-Macdonald framework combined with a linear mixed-effects model. Results During the survey period, the mean MOI and adult mosquito density index (ADI) using HLC for Ae. albopictus were 12.96 ± 17.78 and 16.79 ± 55.92, respectively. The R0 estimated from the daily ADI (ADID) showed a significant seasonal variation. A 10-unit increase in MOI was associated with 1.08-fold (95% CI 1.05, 1.11) ADID and an increase of 0.14 (95% CI 0.05, 0.23) in the logarithmic transformation of R0. MOI-based R0 of dengue varied by month and average monthly temperature. During the active period of Ae. albopictus from April to November in Guangzhou region, a high risk of dengue outbreak was predicted by the MOI-based R0 model, especially from August to October, with the predicted R0 > 1. Meanwhile, from December to March, the estimates of MOI-based R0 were < 1. Conclusions The present study enriched our knowledge about mosquito-based surveillance indicators and indicated that the MOI of Ae. albopictus could be valuable for application in estimating the R0 of dengue using a statistical model. The MOI-based R0 model prediction of the risk of dengue transmission varied by month and temperature in Guangzhou. Our findings lay a foundation for further development of a complex efficient dengue risk prediction system. Graphical Abstract