Preoperative NT-proBNP and LVEF for the prediction of acute kidney injury after noncardiac surgery: a single-centre retrospective study

Abstract

Abstract Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most common postoperative complications in noncardiac surgical patients, has an important impact on prognosis and is difficult to predict. Whether preoperative N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) levels can predict postoperative AKI in noncardiac surgical patients is unclear. Methods We included 3,314 patients who underwent noncardiac surgery and had measurements of preoperative NT-proBNP concentrations and LVEF levels at a tertiary academic hospital in China between 2008 and 2018. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to construct a postoperative AKI risk prediction model for this cohort. Then, NT-proBNP concentrations and LVEF levels were included in the abovementioned model as independent variables, and the predictive ability of these two models was compared. Results Postoperative AKI occurred in 223 (6.72%) patients within 1 week after surgery. Preoperative NT-proBNP concentrations and LVEF levels were independent predictors of AKI after adjustment for clinical variables. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the AKI risk predictive model established with clinical baseline variables was 0.767 (95% CI: 0.732, 0.802). When NT-proBNP concentrations and LVEF levels were added to the base model, the AUROC was 0.811 (95% CI: 0.779, 0.843). The addition of NT-proBNP concentrations and LVEF levels improved reclassification by 22.9% (95% CI 10.5–34.4%) for patients who developed postoperative AKI and by 36.3% (95% CI 29.5–43.9%) for those who did not, resulting in a significant overall improvement in net reclassification (NRI: 0.591, 95% CI 0.437–0.752, P < 0.000). The integral discrimination improvement was 0.100 (95% CI: 0.075, 0.125, P < 0.000).The final postoperative AKI prediction model was constructed, and had a good discriminative ability and fitted to the dataset. Conclusions Preoperative NT-proBNP concentrations and LVEF levels were independently associated with the risk of AKI after noncardiac surgery, and they could improve the predictive ability of logistic regression models based on conventional clinical risk factors. Trial registration The protocol was preregistered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR1900024056).