Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for postoperative ICU admission in patients with colorectal cancer: clinical prediction model study

Abstract

Abstract Background Transfer to the ICU is common following non-cardiac surgeries, including radical colorectal cancer (CRC) resection. Understanding the judicious utilization of costly ICU medical resources and supportive postoperative care is crucial. This study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting the need for mandatory ICU admission immediately following radical CRC resection. Methods Retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 1003 patients who underwent radical or palliative surgery for CRC at Ningxia Medical University General Hospital from August 2020 to April 2022. Patients were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Independent predictors were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression in the training cohort to construct the nomogram. An online prediction tool was developed for clinical use. The nomogram's calibration and discriminative performance were assessed in both cohorts, and its clinical utility was evaluated through decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The final predictive model comprised age (P = 0.003, odds ratio [OR] 3.623, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.535–8.551); nutritional risk screening 2002 (NRS2002) (P = 0.000, OR 6.129, 95% CI 2.920–12.863); serum albumin (ALB) (P = 0.013, OR 0.921, 95% CI 0.863–0.982); atrial fibrillation (P = 0.000, OR 20.017, 95% CI 4.191–95.609); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (P = 0.009, OR 8.151, 95% CI 1.674–39.676); forced expiratory volume in 1 s / Forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) (P = 0.040, OR 0.966, 95% CI 0.935–0.998); and surgical method (P = 0.024, OR 0.425, 95% CI 0.202–0.891). The area under the curve was 0.865, and the consistency index was 0.367. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated excellent model fit (P = 0.367). The calibration curve closely approximated the ideal diagonal line. DCA showed a significant net benefit of the predictive model for postoperative ICU admission. Conclusion Predictors of ICU admission following radical CRC resection include age, preoperative serum albumin level, nutritional risk screening, atrial fibrillation, COPD, FEV1/FVC, and surgical route. The predictive nomogram and online tool support clinical decision-making for postoperative ICU admission in patients undergoing radical CRC surgery. Trial registration Despite the retrospective nature of this study, we have proactively registered it with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry. The registration number is ChiCTR2200062210, and the date of registration is 29/07/2022.