Ability of parasternal intercostal muscle thickening fraction to predict reintubation in surgical patients with sepsis

Abstract

Abstract Objectives We aimed to evaluate the ability of the parasternal intercostal (PIC) thickening fraction during spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) to predict the need for reintubation within 48 h after extubation in surgical patients with sepsis. Methods This prospective observational study included adult patients with sepsis who were mechanically ventilated and indicated for SBT. Ultrasound measurements of the PIC thickening fraction and diaphragmatic excursion (DE) were recorded 15 min after the start of the SBT. After extubation, the patients were followed up for 48 h for the need for reintubation. The study outcomes were the ability of the PIC thickening fraction (primary outcome) and DE to predict reintubation within 48 h of extubation using area under receiver characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. The accuracy of the model including the findings of right PIC thickening fraction and right DE was also assessed using the current study cut-off values. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for reintubation. Results We analyzed data from 49 patients who underwent successful SBT, and 10/49 (20%) required reintubation. The AUCs (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the ability of right and left side PIC thickening fraction to predict reintubation were 0.97 (0.88–1.00) and 0.96 (0.86–1.00), respectively; at a cutoff value of 6.5–8.3%, the PIC thickening fraction had a negative predictive value of 100%. The AUCs for the PIC thickening fraction and DE were comparable; and both measures were independent risk factors for reintubation. The AUC (95% CI) of the model including the right PIC thickening fraction > 6.5% and right DE ≤ 18 mm to predict reintubation was 0.99 (0.92–1.00), with a positive predictive value of 100% when both sonographic findings are positive and negative predictive value of 100% when both sonographic findings are negative. Conclusions Among surgical patients with sepsis, PIC thickening fraction evaluated during the SBT is an independent risk factor for reintubation. The PIC thickening fraction has an excellent predictive value for reintubation. A PIC thickening fraction of ≤ 6.5–8.3% can exclude reintubation, with a negative predictive value of 100%. Furthermore, a combination of high PIC and low DE can also indicate a high risk of reintubation. However, larger studies that include different populations are required to replicate our findings and validate the cutoff values.