Mathematical model of the spread of COVID-19 in Plateau State, Nigeria

Abstract

AbstractIn this research, a mathematical model consisting of non-pharmaceutical control measures is formulated. The developed model helps to examine the transmission of COVID-19 infection in Plateau State, Nigeria, using face masks$$c_{f}$$cfand social distancing$$c_{d}$$cdas control measures. Data used for the simulation of the developed model were obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control which was fitted to the system of ordinary differential equations using nonlinear least squares method. Results at baseline values$$c_{f} = 0.1$$cf=0.1and$$c_{d} = 0.2$$cd=0.2of control measures indicate 2.3 estimation as basic reproduction number which suggests that COVID-19 in Plateau State tends towards endemic state. However, above about 40% in the use of face masks in the population and corresponding above 50% adherence to social distancing could as well bring down the basic reproduction number to a value below 1 necessary for disease eradication. The results at baseline values further indicate that the peak of the COVID-19 had been reached in less than 250 days from the first detection date after about 476,455 undetected asymptomatic individuals, 92,168 undetected symptomatic individuals and 83,801 detected quarantined individuals have been fully infectious. Therefore, the policymakers in Plateau State have the possibility of eradicating the disease with further strict non-pharmaceutical control measures provided that the present conditions of analysis remain fairly the same.