Adaptation of risk prediction equations for cardiovascular outcomes among patients with type 2 diabetes in real-world settings: a cross-institutional study using common data model approach

Abstract

Abstract Objective To adapt risk prediction equations for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF) among patients with type 2 diabetes in real-world settings using cross-institutional electronic health records (EHRs) in Taiwan. Methods The EHRs from two medical centers, National Cheng Kung University Hospital (NCKUH; 11,740 patients) and National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH; 20,313 patients), were analyzed using the common data model approach. Risk equations for MI, stroke, and HF from UKPDS-OM2, RECODe, and CHIME models were adapted for external validation and recalibration. External validation was assessed by (1) discrimination, evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and (2) calibration, evaluated by calibration slopes and intercepts and the Greenwood–Nam–D’Agostino (GND) test. Recalibration was conducted for unsatisfactory calibration (p-value of GND test < 0.05) by adjusting the baseline hazards of original equations to address variations in patients’ cardiovascular risks across institutions. Results The CHIME risk equations had acceptable discrimination (AUROC: 0.71–0.79) and better calibration than that for UKPDS-OM2 and RECODe, although the calibration remained unsatisfactory. After recalibration, the calibration slopes/intercepts of the CHIME-MI, CHIME-stroke, and CHIME-HF risk equations were 0.9848/− 0.0008, 1.1003/− 0.0046, and 0.9436/0.0063 in the NCKUH population and 1.1060/− 0.0011, 0.8714/0.0030, and 1.0476/− 0.0016 in the NTUH population, respectively. All the recalibrated risk equations showed satisfactory calibration (p-values of GND tests ≥ 0.05). Conclusions We provide valid risk prediction equations for MI, stroke, and HF outcomes in Taiwanese type 2 diabetes populations. A framework for adapting risk equations across institutions is also proposed.