Explainable Boosting Machine approach identifies risk factors for acute renal failure

Abstract

Abstract Background Risk stratification and outcome prediction are crucial for intensive care resource planning. In addressing the large data sets of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, we employed the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a novel machine learning model, to identify determinants of acute kidney injury (AKI) in these patients. AKI significantly impacts outcomes in the critically ill. Methods An analysis of 3572 ICU patients was conducted. Variables such as average central venous pressure (CVP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), age, gender, and comorbidities were examined. This analysis combined traditional statistical methods with the EBM to gain a detailed understanding of AKI risk factors. Results Our analysis revealed chronic kidney disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, liver disease, and anemia as significant comorbidities influencing AKI risk, with liver disease and anemia being particularly impactful. Surgical factors were also key; lower GI surgery heightened AKI risk, while neurosurgery was associated with a reduced risk. EBM identified four crucial variables affecting AKI prediction: anemia, liver disease, and average CVP increased AKI risk, whereas neurosurgery decreased it. Age was a progressive risk factor, with risk escalating after the age of 50 years. Hemodynamic instability, marked by a MAP below 65 mmHg, was strongly linked to AKI, showcasing a threshold effect at 60 mmHg. Intriguingly, average CVP was a significant predictor, with a critical threshold at 10.7 mmHg. Conclusion Using an Explainable Boosting Machine enhance the precision in AKI risk factors in ICU patients, providing a more nuanced understanding of known AKI risks. This approach allows for refined predictive modeling of AKI, effectively overcoming the limitations of traditional statistical models.