Estimating the volume of penumbra in rodents using DTI and stack-based ensemble machine learning framework

Abstract

Abstract Background This study investigates the potential of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in identifying penumbral volume (PV) compared to the standard gadolinium-required perfusion–diffusion mismatch (PDM), utilizing a stack-based ensemble machine learning (ML) approach with enhanced explainability. Methods Sixteen male rats were subjected to middle cerebral artery occlusion. The penumbra was identified using PDM at 30 and 90 min after occlusion. We used 11 DTI-derived metrics and 14 distance-based features to train five voxel-wise ML models. The model predictions were integrated using stack-based ensemble techniques. ML-estimated and PDM-defined PVs were compared to evaluate model performance through volume similarity assessment, the Pearson correlation analysis, and Bland–Altman analysis. Feature importance was determined for explainability. Results In the test rats, the ML-estimated median PV was 106.4 mL (interquartile range 44.6–157.3 mL), whereas the PDM-defined median PV was 102.0 mL (52.1–144.9 mL). These PVs had a volume similarity of 0.88 (0.79–0.96), a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.93 (p < 0.001), and a Bland–Altman bias of 2.5 mL (2.4% of the mean PDM-defined PV), with 95% limits of agreement ranging from -44.9 to 49.9 mL. Among the features used for PV prediction, the mean diffusivity was the most important feature. Conclusions Our study confirmed that PV can be estimated using DTI metrics with a stack-based ensemble ML approach, yielding results comparable to the volume defined by the standard PDM. The model explainability enhanced its clinical relevance. Human studies are warranted to validate our findings. Relevance statement The proposed DTI-based ML model can estimate PV without the need for contrast agent administration, offering a valuable option for patients with kidney dysfunction. It also can serve as an alternative if perfusion map interpretation fails in the clinical setting. Key points • Penumbral volume can be estimated by DTI combined with stack-based ensemble ML. • Mean diffusivity was the most important feature used for predicting penumbral volume. • The proposed approach can be beneficial for patients with kidney dysfunction. Graphical Abstract