Developing a nomogram for predicting acute complicated course in pediatric acute hematogenous osteomyelitis

Abstract

Abstract Background The objective of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of an acute complicated course in pediatric patients with Acute Hematogenous Osteomyelitis (AHO). Methods A predictive model was developed based on a dataset of 82 pediatric AHO patients. Clinical data, imaging findings, and laboratory results were systematically collected for all patients. Subsequently, biomarker indices were calculated based on the laboratory results to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors influencing early adverse outcomes in AHO. A nomogram model was constructed based on independent factors and validated internally through bootstrap methods. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram model were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. The developed nomogram model was compared with previously published A-score and Gouveia scoring systems. Results Logistic regression analysis identified delayed source control, suppurative arthritis, albumin on admission, and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) as independent predictors of early adverse outcomes in pediatric AHO patients. The logistic regression model was formulated as: Log(P) = 7. 667–1.752 × delayed source control − 1.956 × suppurative arthritis − 0.154 × albumin on admission + 0.009 × PLR. The nomogram’s AUC obtained through Bootstrap validation was 0.829 (95% CI: 0.740–0.918). Calibration plots showed good agreement between predictions and observations. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model achieved net benefits across all threshold probabilities. The predictive efficacy of our nomogram model for acute complicated course in pediatric AHO patients surpassed that of the A-score and Gouveia scores. Conclusions A predictive model for the acute complicated course of pediatric AHO was established based on four variables: delayed source control, suppurative arthritis, albumin on admission, and PLR. This model is practical, easy to use for clinicians, and can aid in guiding clinical treatment decisions.