Analyzing the impact of an MDG-Fund program on childhood malnutrition in Timor-Leste

Abstract

Abstract Background Timor-Leste’s food insecurity, propelled by political conflicts, a fragile economy and biophysical limitations that characterize mountainous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), is expressed in a high incidence (50%) of stunted children. Hence, the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund’s Joint Program’s (MDG-F JP) in 2009 was a timely intervention to reduce prevalence of underweight among under-fives. Since the impact of the program remains largely unclear, the current study investigates the contributions of the MDG-F JP on improving children’s nutritional status in Timor-Leste, in order to inform policymakers on how to make future programs more effective. Methods Using bivariate analyses and multiple linear regression models we analyzed Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from under-fives in 2009–2010 and 2016, combined with spatially explicit data from geographic information systems (GIS). The analyses generated trends and factors associated with undernutrition, which were used in a quasi-experimental setting to compare districts that received the MDG-F JP with similar districts that did not receive MDG-F JP interventions. Results A comprehensive set of factors dependent on seasons, locations, and individuals determine undernutrition in Timor-Leste. A positive impact of the MDG-F JP was found for the average severity of wasting, but not for stunting and underweight. Conclusions The findings reinforce the pressing need for integrated and cross-sectoral programs, aimed especially at agricultural workers, mothers, and children. The agricultural challenge is to sustainably select, produce and conserve higher-yield and nutrient-rich crops, and educational enhancement should be aligned with local practices and research.